Fed Chair Warsh Stays Coy on Rates as Markets React to Labor Data

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 13.96 points to 52305.24, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.22% and the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.66%. Markets currently assign less than a 30% probability to a rate hike this month, a sentiment reinforced by National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, who warned that tightening during a supply-driven boom would be a macroeconomic error. Warsh also addressed the Supreme Court ruling blocking the removal of Fed governor Lisa Cook, asserting that the decision bolsters the central bank’s political independence.

Economic indicators provided a mixed backdrop for the session. ADP reported that private-sector hiring added 98,000 jobs in June, falling short of the 110,000 anticipated by economists. This cooling labor market precedes the government payroll figures due Thursday. Meanwhile, corporate movements were significant: General Mills climbed 8.5% on successful price adjustments, and Meta shares jumped 8.8% following reports of a new cloud venture for AI computing. Conversely, Alcoa slumped 8.9% after announcing a $5.6 billion acquisition of South32 assets, a move coinciding with an 18% slide in aluminum prices from their recent peak.