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UK-US Drug Deal Linked to 229,000 Excess Deaths in New Study

A study published in the British Medical Journal projects that a UK-US pharmaceutical trade agreement could lead to 229,000 excess deaths by 2036. Researchers warn that the deal, which mandates higher spending on American medications, will force a massive diversion of funds away from essential frontline NHS services.

The analysis, conducted by experts from the universities of York and Liverpool alongside Christchurch Hospital, estimates that £44.7 billion must be reallocated from the health budget to cover the increased costs of US-manufactured drugs. Under the terms brokered last December, the UK agreed to pay 25% more for these medications over the next decade. This commitment effectively doubles the share of GDP dedicated to pharmaceuticals from 0.3% to 0.6%.

While the government initially argued the pact would provide access to innovative treatments and prevent US tariffs on British medicines, critics describe the lack of parliamentary oversight as a scandal. Sir Ciarán Devane, chief executive of the NHS Alliance, warned that siphoning billions from community care and disease prevention could have profound consequences for long-term health outcomes. The projected death toll cited in the research exceeds the 137,000 excess deaths recorded in the UK during the peak of the coronavirus pandemic. If indirect impacts on social care are included, the study suggests that figure could climb to 291,000.

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