Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators, noted that while yield spreads provided a boost, they failed to counteract cooling consumer sentiment and a persistent slump in building permits. Despite the monthly dip, the six- and twelve-month growth rates for the index have remained stable. The Conference Board remains cautiously optimistic, recently nudging its 2026 GDP growth forecast up to 1.9%.
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US Leading Economic Index Slips in June as Housing and Sentiment Lag
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US fell 0.2% in June to 99.1, stalling the modest momentum built during the spring. While the decline partially erased gains from April and May, the index’s contraction remains notably milder than the downturn witnessed throughout the second half of 2025.
Contrasting the leading index, the Coincident Economic Index—which tracks current conditions like payroll and industrial production—edged up 0.2% in June. This marks a 0.4% expansion for the first half of the year, signaling that the broader economy maintains underlying strength. Business investment, particularly in AI-related sectors, is expected to serve as a primary buffer against weakening consumer spending as inflation trends continue to normalize.
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