U.S. Crude Inventories Expected to Shrink Amid Steady Refining

The survey of eight analysts and traders reveals a split in market expectations, with estimates for crude movement ranging from a 2.6 million barrel build to a 2.6 million barrel draw. Should the average estimate hold, commercial crude stocks will settle at 411.1 million barrels. Gasoline inventories are similarly expected to contract, with a forecasted fall of 800,000 barrels to 210.5 million, while distillate fuel stocks—primarily diesel—are projected to decline by 300,000 barrels to 109.3 million.

Refinery activity is also showing signs of a slight cooling. Analysts anticipate capacity utilization will dip to 95.8% from the previous week’s 96.1% level. While individual forecasts for refinery runs vary from a 0.2 percentage point increase to a 0.9 percentage point decline, the overall outlook remains consistent with a modest reduction in output. The official data from the Energy Information Administration is slated for release at 10:30 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, which will provide the final tally on these supply-side shifts.