Statistics Canada reports that national wheat production is poised to drop 10.9% to 36.1 million metric tons. This decline stems from a 5.6% reduction in harvested area and lower anticipated yields of 53.6 bushels an acre. Saskatchewan and Alberta are driving this trend, with regional output expected to fall by 9.7% and 10.9% respectively. Canola production faces a similar squeeze, dipping 0.8% to 22.1 million tons as falling yields offset a record-setting expansion of the harvested area to 23.2 million acres.
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Canada Shifts Crop Outlook as Wheat and Canola Yields Decline
Canadian farmers are recalibrating their harvest expectations for 2026, pivoting toward increased soybean and corn production while grappling with a significant contraction in wheat and canola output. Variable growing conditions across the Prairies and Eastern Canada have hindered yields, forcing a retreat from last year's record-setting agricultural performance.
Conversely, soybean production is projected to climb 7.8% to 7.5 million tons, bolstered by both higher yields and a 3% expansion in acreage. Corn for grain production follows this growth trajectory, with an expected increase of 11.3% to 16.5 million tons. These shifts reflect a growing season marked by erratic weather, ranging from below-average precipitation in parts of Saskatchewan to excessive rainfall in Ontario and western Quebec. Final acreage data will be confirmed on December 4.
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