Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, attributed the decline to weakness in four of the index’s ten components. Consumer expectations remain a primary drag on the outlook, while building permits fell across nearly every region, with the West standing as the sole exception. Despite the cooling leading indicators, the broader economy continues to expand, evidenced by a 0.1% rise in the Coincident Economic Index, which tracks current conditions like payroll employment and industrial production.
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US Leading Economic Index Dips as Growth Outlook Softens
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the US slipped 0.1% in August to 99.5, marking its first monthly decline since March. This reversal interrupts a brief period of stability, as the six-month growth rate turned slightly negative, signaling a more uncertain economic environment ahead for the remainder of 2026.
Looking forward, the organization has adjusted its growth projections. Real GDP is expected to increase by 1.9% in 2026, but the forecast for 2027 was trimmed from 1.9% to 1.8%. While the Lagging Economic Index rose by 0.2% in August, maintaining a positive trend over the last six months, the softening in leading indicators suggests that the pace of economic activity will likely decelerate in the coming quarters.
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