US Employment Trends Index Slips as Small Business Hiring Cools

Conrad Qi, an economic data scientist at The Conference Board, noted that the decline partially reverses gains seen in July and August. Despite the dip, the index continues to signal moderate payroll employment growth ahead. However, the internal components reveal growing friction for jobseekers; the share of consumers reporting that jobs are 'hard to get' climbed to 21.9%, up from 20.3% in August.

Small businesses are simultaneously pulling back, with the share of firms reporting unfilled positions dropping 3 percentage points to 32%. This reduction in hiring intent, paired with a rise in involuntarily part-time workers to 16.5%, suggests a tightening environment. While temporary help services shed 10,900 positions, the index found support in declining unemployment insurance claims and a modest increase in job openings, which reached 7.21 million. Industrial production and real manufacturing sales also provided positive contributions, keeping the overall trend in a state of delicate balance.