The third quarter marked a definitive pivot for the wholesale market, where depreciation accelerated beyond typical seasonal patterns. Chief economist Jeremy Robb pointed to a confluence of economic headwinds—specifically record-high diesel prices and climbing interest rates—that have dampened wholesale demand. The absence of a post-hurricane market boost further exacerbated the decline, as September became the first such month in decades without an Atlantic storm to drive replacement demand.
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Used Vehicle Values Slide as Cox Automotive Trims Year-End Forecast
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index dropped to 205.9 in September, a 0.6% decline from a year ago that signals a sharp shift in market momentum. Faced with rising interest rates and surging fuel costs, analysts at Cox Automotive have lowered their 2026 growth forecast to a modest 0.2%.
Market dynamics are currently bifurcated by fuel efficiency. While large SUVs and pickups face waning interest, electric vehicles have seen a surge in volume, with transaction share hitting a record 4.9% in the third quarter. Off-lease supply is also beginning to expand, with projections suggesting that EVs will account for 19% of this segment by summer 2027. Despite these shifts, Cox Automotive has nudged its total 2026 used-vehicle sales forecast upward to 38.5 million units, reflecting resilient retail activity even as wholesale prices remain under pressure.
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