Mexican Inflation Rebounds as Seasonal Subsidies Expire

Energy costs surged 3.08% overall, but upward pressure also surfaced in the core CPI, which climbed to a 12-month rate of 3.78%. Service sectors contributed significantly to this climb, with airfares jumping 15% and tourism packages rising 6.8%. These figures underscore the difficulty of curbing sticky core inflation that remains above the central bank’s long-term comfort zone.

Bank of Mexico board members recently debated the possibility of future interest-rate cuts, yet the path remains narrow. Minutes from the September meeting reveal that while three of the five members expressed openness to easing, the bank faces persistent risks from currency depreciation and resilient core price indices. Officials maintain a cautious stance, projecting that inflation will not reach the 3% target until the final quarter of 2027.