A Mitchell Research and Communications survey conducted June 11-13 shows El-Sayed commanding 42% support, placing him nine points ahead of U.S. Representative Haley Stevens. State Senator Mallory McMorrow, who has framed her candidacy as a moderate alternative, trails with 6% support. El-Sayed’s strength remains concentrated among voters under 45, where he leads by 83 points in a contest local observers have dubbed a "millennial showdown."
Beyond the primary, a separate Zenith Research poll indicates El-Sayed holds a narrow lead over Republican Mike Rogers, 45% to 42%. By comparison, Stevens polls only one point ahead of the Republican, a margin attributed by pollsters to her relative unpopularity among progressive voters. Analysts point to Stevens’ ties to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee as a drag on her numbers, reflecting a broader decline in support for the organization among Democratic voters since the October 2023 assault on Gaza.

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